Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back against Barca + Follow
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Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back against Barca
Brescia lớn make it back-to-back wins
Infogol analyst Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe after going three out of four last weekend, using soccer tips data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold…
Brescia vs Lecce
Saturday, 14:00 GMT
This week we start in Italy, with two sides at the wrong end of the table facing off in Brescia.
It has been a really tough season so far for Brescia, but they did get a rare win last weekend, as their 1-0 win away at SPAL snapped a six-game losing streak and lifted them off the bottom of the table.
They have been unfortunate so far this season, sitting 19th in the table but ranking 14th in Infogol's xG table, so things aren't as bad as results have suggested so far.
Last weekend was their best attacking performance of the season so far (xG: SPA 2.18 - hai.28 BRE), and it came against a fellow struggling team, just like Lecce, so they will fancy their chances of soccer vip tip here.
Lecce have proved lớn be extremely tough to beat this season, and they come into this game having lost just one of their last eight games, but during that time they have been extremely fortunate.
I Giallorossi sit second bottom of Infogol's xG table after 15 games, and rank as by far and away the worst defensive team in the league according to xGA, allowing 36.5 xGA (2.43 per game), some 8.9 more than next worst Cagliari.
Sooner or later Lecce will get the results their poor performances deserve, and I think that could start here, and Infogol calculates the hosts have a 50% (2.00) chance of winning, making the hai.06 (48%) on offer a small amount of value.
Sociedad can test BarcaReal Sociedad vs Barcelona
Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Over to Spain now, and the eye-catching game on Saturday comes from the Basque country, as champions Barcelona travel lớn face an exciting Real Sociedad side.
Sociedad were frustrated last weekend by Real Valladolid (xG: RVA 0.70 - 1.96 RSO), a game in which they were held lớn a goalless draw despite creating a host of good chances.
They have been really impressive so far this season, sitting fifth in our xG table, and their process (1.65 xGF, 1.13 xGA per game) suggests they could give Barcelona a really tough game, especially at Anoeta, where their xG process is even better (2.01 xGF, 1.03 xGA per home game).
Barcelona look to have hit their stride after a strange start to the season, winning nine of their last 10 La Liga games, including an emphatic 5-2 win against Mallorca last weekend.
Despite such a good winning run, Barca sit only 4th in our xG table, with some of their results fortunate, especially on the road, where they have performed poorly this season.
Away from the Camp Nou, Barcelona's process is that of a mid-table team (1.38 xGF, 1.18 xGA per game), and all of their dropped points this season (3L, 1D) have come on the road.
Infogol thinks Barcelona are way too short for this game, priced up at 1.70 (59%) on the Exchange, with the model suggesting that they should be priced closer to 2.50 (40%), so the obvious value play is to lay Barcelona in what is a tough away game.
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